UFC 333 Picks & Predictions: Volkanovski vs Evloev
UFC 333 Picks & Predictions: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Stake ambassador Merab Dvalishvili meets Petr Yan for the 3rd time, with the bantamweight title on the line in the co-main event. We caught up with him for an exclusive interview before UFC 333, which takes place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on October 24. Yan took the belt from Merab last December, and The Machine is keen to win it back.
In the main event, featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski defends his title against undefeated contender Movsar Evloev. What's more, the rest of the card is stacked with big names including Alexander Volkov, Ramazan Temirov, Aaron Pico and Dominick Reyes. The main card and prelims offer an excellent opportunity to find great odds.
All of the fights at UFC 333 are available to bet on at Stake Sportsbook. The latest MMA betting odds are available now, and there are plenty of betting opportunities on this card. Before you bet, check out our expert opinions and analysis of the upcoming fight card right here at Stake. We base our UFC 333 picks on fighting style matchups, career statistics and recent performances.
UFC 333 co-main event picks - Yan vs. Dvalishvili 3 (bantamweight title)
Merab Dvalishvili dominated the first fight between these 2 fighters in March 2023, winning a unanimous decision. He went on to win the bantamweight title against Sean O'Malley and defend it 3 times in a single year. However, when he met Petr Yan again at UFC 323 last December, it was his 4th title fight in around 12 months, and Merab later revealed he went into the fight carrying a knee injury. Yan won a unanimous decision and ended Merab's 14-fight win streak.
Yan deserves credit for that performance. He stopped all but 2 of Merab's 29 takedown attempts and outworked him on the feet. With that win in mind, Yan is the betting favourite in the trilogy. Yan has never been finished in his career, and Merab has never been KO'd, so we're expecting this one to go the distance again.
It's the first time Merab has been the challenger since he won the belt, and we learned in his interview that he's changed his approach. He said, "I guess two months between fights wasn't enough when I fought him last time." He's had 10 months to prepare this time and stayed busy wrestling in RAF. He also told us, "I used to train hard and now I'm training smarter."
Based on the circumstances of the last fight, we have to pick Merab to win. Nobody in the division matches his cardio and pressure over five rounds, and a fully healthy Merab with a full camp is a different proposition. Yan will still be dangerous, especially with his body shots and elbows in the clinch. Still, we're predicting Merab's work rate will make the difference. Merab also predicted he'll win, saying "I know I'm better than Yan but he beat me on the day. I want to fix that in the next fight and I'll make sure I'll beat him."
If you're backing The Machine, we're boosting Merab's odds to 5.00 for his 5th UFC title fight win. Look for the boosted selection marked in yellow on the Yan vs. Dvalishvili market. It's one pre-match single bet per customer, and boosted bets aren't eligible for other promotions, so check the full terms before betting.
Prediction: Merab by decision.
Main event picks - Volkanovski vs. Evloev (featherweight title)
Alexander Volkanovski has been one of the best featherweights in UFC history since he took the belt from Max Holloway in 2019. After back-to-back losses to Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, he won the title back against Diego Lopes in 2025 and beat Lopes again in Sydney earlier this year. He holds a record of 28-4, and at 38 years old, he's still the slight betting favourite according to the UFC 333 odds.
Movsar Evloev is one of the few undefeated title challengers in the UFC, with a record of 20-0 and 10-0 in the promotion. His wins include Arnold Allen, Aljamain Sterling and, most recently, Lerone Murphy by majority decision in March. His grappling is his main strength, and he landed 9 of 10 takedowns over the last 3 rounds against Murphy. However, he hasn't finished any of his UFC opponents.
Volkanovski is our pick for the main event. Evloev's wrestling will test him, but Volkanovski has excellent takedown defence and has far more experience in 5-round title fights. While age is a concern, we're predicting his experience and fight IQ will be enough to keep this standing and win the later rounds.
Prediction: Volkanovski by decision
UFC 333 main card predictions
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov
Lone'er Kavanagh is one of the most exciting prospects in the flyweight division. He beat former champion Brandon Moreno on short notice in February, but he was submitted by Brandon Royval in July. This will be his 3rd fight of the year, and the 2 losses on his 10-2 record have both come by stoppage.
Ramazan Temirov is on a 12-fight win streak, including wins over Charles Johnson and Steve Erceg. He returned from a year out of the cage in July and stopped Erceg in the 1st round. He likes to brawl and throws wild overhand rights, and the odds are very close in this matchup. We're backing his power to be the difference in a stand-up fight.
Prediction: Temirov by KO/TKO
Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Alexander Volkov is the #2-ranked heavyweight and has 40 wins in his professional career. He's won 6 of his last 7 fights, and the only loss in that run was a split decision against Ciryl Gane that many fans thought he deserved to win. He uses his reach and jab very well and is the betting favourite in this matchup.
Rizvan Kuniev is 2-1 in the UFC, with wins over Jailton Almeida and Tyrell Fortune. He's a tough test for anyone in the division, but we're predicting Volkov's range and experience will keep him on the outside and win him the fight.
Prediction: Volkov by decision
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Aaron Pico arrived in the UFC with a lot of hype after his Bellator run, but he was knocked out by Lerone Murphy with a spinning back elbow in his debut. He bounced back with a win over Patricio Pitbull and was originally set to face Arnold Allen, who withdrew through injury.
Losene Keita stepped in as the replacement with a 17-2 record. He's coming off a 1st-round KO of Muhammad Naimov just 7 weeks ago. Keita has momentum, but Pico's wrestling gives him more ways to win. We expect Pico to mix in takedowns and get his 2nd UFC win.
Prediction: Pico by decision
Selected prelim picks
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes
Azamat Murzakanov was unbeaten in his first 16 pro fights before Paulo Costa knocked him out with a head kick in April. He doesn't throw a lot of volume, but he's fast and accurate when he lets his hands go. Dominick Reyes is a former title challenger who won a split decision over Johnny Walker on the same card, but he's been knocked out by Carlos Ulberg and has shown he can be hurt by clean power shots. Murzakanov is the favourite, and we predict he'll bounce back with a finish.
Prediction: Murzakanov by KO/TKO
Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
Nikita Krylov is one of the most experienced light heavyweights on the roster, but he's 2-3 in his last 5 fights and is coming off a TKO loss to Robert Whittaker in July. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is 10-0 and has finished his last 5 opponents in the 1st round, including an 8-second win over Julius Walker. He's a huge betting favourite in this matchup, and we predict he'll keep his perfect record.
Prediction: Yakhyaev by KO/TKO
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